A few years back, son of man wrote a piece about the weakening of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu's Strategy Team. It was not meant as an indictment of the men and women plotting political strategies for the National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC). 

The piece, on Facebook, was meant to be a wakeup call in the face of some miscalculations observed by this man of God. The same thing is happening all over again. And, it is not good at all. The pinnacle of success remains man's greatest albatross, especially in politics.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, National Leader of the All Progressives Congress.

Bill Clinton had it all before Monica Lewinsky happened. Connecting with people was not a problem for the randy former American president. A committed loyalist took his life at some point, instead of allowing officials get at Clinton, politically.

Tony Blair was okay until the lies about invading Iraq. And, Donald Trump came on the scene to blow Barak Obama's political invincibility away, despite his sterling performance as president.

Back home, Bashorun MKO Abiola never believed he could be shabbily treated until the men of Ikeja Air Force base gave him the Fela treatment. Unfortunately, he did not take heed. His life was taken by the same military after the humiliation of being held in detention over what many genuinely believe till date was a criminal abuse of the Nigerian political process.

Yes, Tinubu remains our leader today. But son of man has a history that cannot change. Despite an acknowledgement of his leadership, being of the same APC stock, this Ifa acolyte remains a staunch disciple of late Alhaji Ganiyu Olawale Dawodu. G.O.D's side of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) was son of man's informal entry into politics.

There is an ongoing belief that Tinubu is currently unhappy with President Muhammadu Buhari due to alleged short end of the stick with which Yorubas are being treated under the current administration. Of course, this is a fallacy. One can firmly write that there is no iota of truth in the claim that Tinubu is unhappy or that Yorubas are not being treated fairly. Such an argument is like the difference between six and half a dozen.

The major strength of Tinubu remains his close relationship with the media and civil society organisations, an association formed in the hey days of military rule in Nigeria. It is from this relationship that he has an army of public opinion moulders, who are seasoned writers in their own right, but who many often view as speaking his mind each time they write on burning national or local issues.

Uncle Orebe Femi's distillation of what he observed as Buhari's shortcomings, ordinarily, should not have attracted media attention as an errand on Tinubu's behalf. But the 2023 season is here already, and gloves will surely come off hands ready for a fight that'll make both Kogi and Bayelsa states elections a child's play. And, Asiwaju's strategists ought to have seen this coming for them to plead with some angry associates to 'take it easy'.

Late Gen. Sani Abacha successfully deployed the ancient “divide and conquer” strategy against the opposition during his iron-fisted rule. Buhari was a core member of the Abacha regime. But it appears Tinubu's men have forgotten that tactics that worked in your favour in the past could still be deployed in a 419 manner to achieve victory in another setting. This is where they need to think!

The Cabal plotting strategies for Buhari did not just happen today. They've been there since his Abacha and ANPP days, and these brilliant minds have sharpened the Cat's Paw Strategy to a point that there is hardly anything they cannot get away with, because some of Tinubu's insiders are fully with them today. But, most importantly, opinion moulding through the social or formal media can only work effectively down here in Southern Nigeria. It has very little or no effect up North. 

The Informal or Traditional Media remains the most effective means of delivering messages up North. And, Tinubu's team cannot control that space, walahi talahi! It is time for Deede Mirago/we, as Mushin guys would say. Gidigba o si ilekun yi o! Of course, the man should also be mindful of the maa jo lo, mo n wo ehin e crowd. Many are just waiting for Bourdillon’s largesse.

Abiola did not mind giving. In the late Aare Ona Kakanfo's dictionary, ti a o ba ra iro, a o le ra otito. Not today sir. His death in military custody proved that beyond reasonable doubt.

My advice? Who is this Okeliwo man to give one? But it is my belief that o ti early ju lati maa se ise 2023. Ko mu ogbon wa sir! In addition, Asiwaju appears to have forgotten he is wearing MKO's shoes right now. Abiola was closer than closest to IBB. Ki lo ri mu bo nibe? Alumuntu ni won ran si oko Kudiratu.

I sincerely feel he should not run for president in 2023, of course, one could be wrong.

If I were among Tinubu's strategists, the promise of APC to restructure Nigeria will be my leader's major preoccupation today. Restructuring is the Yoruba belief. As that is going on, the Leader, who should become Baba Oba, can then carefully be looking for a quality hand to succeed Buhari. He has many of them at hand. But right now, strategy yin get as e be sir!

  Ø  Wale Adedayo, is a Nigerian journalist and social media influencer.
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